A 250-year reconstruction of average July air temperatures (1775--2024): A key climate indicator of vegetation growth in the alpine treeline ecotone of the High Tatra Mts, Slovakia

Abstract

The reconstruction of historical air temperatures over the past 250 years (1775–2024) in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE) of the High Tatra Mts, Slovakia, provides insights into long-term climate variability. As a high-elevation region sensitive to climatic fluctuations, the alpine treeline is a key indicator of environmental change. A model-based approach allows estimation of air temperature where direct measurements are lacking, offering a tool for assessing long-term climate impacts in high mountains. This study models the July monthly average air temperature (JL-Tavg) and the 10°C July isotherm, a climatic threshold for vegetation growth. The regression model is based on the environmental temperature lapse rate (ETL), assuming a systematic decrease in temperature with altitude (∼0.65°C per 100 m). Using air temperature data from European stations spanning 191–3109 m a.s.l., the model estimated ETL, which was then applied to reconstruct JL-Tavg and track the 10°C isotherm across the Skalnatá dolina ATE profile. The regression model showed a good fit between observed and predicted values, with root mean square error lower than the standard deviation of average JL-Tavg. Reconstructed data indicate that the 10°C July isotherm fluctuated markedly between 1775 and 2024. The alpine treeline, defined as the elevation with zero probability of tree growth, varied from ≈ 2000 m a.s.l. during the cooler phase (1875–1974) to ≈ 2300 m a.s.l. in the warmer phase (1775–1874). Since 1975, accelerated warming has shifted this thermal boundary upward to ≈ 2400 m a.s.l., now representing the upper cold limit for alpine tree growth in the southern High Tatra Mts. Future work should integrate field monitoring, such as mapping dwarf pine above 2000 m a.s.l., to evaluate current distributional limits under ongoing warming.