Pandémia COVID-19 ako indikátor odolnosti alebo zraniteľnosti ekonomík krajín EÚ-27

The COVID-19 pandemic as an indicator of the resilience/vulnerability of EU economies

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic was a major event that affected and changed many aspects of human life. It had a significant impact on global and national economies, altering their development trajectories, processes and many macroeconomic parameters. The extent and duration of the pandemic, the various measures and restrictions associated with it and the different degrees of strictness with which they were followed/enforced affected the economies of the EU countries in different ways. The aim of the study is to identify the significant changes in the EU-27 economies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and to cluster countries according to the similarity of these changes. Cluster analysis was used to classify five different clusters of countries with very similar impact and influence of the pandemic on their economies. Countries belonging to different clusters reacted differently to pandemic-related closures and measures. Each cluster was characterised by different negative effects. The first cluster had the highest increase in unemployment, the second the lowest decrease in inflation, the fourth a significant decrease in production and the fifth the highest increase in imports and decrease in job vacancies. Only the third cluster experienced positive changes in the analysed economic parameters. Based on the classification and characteristics of the clusters, more economically stable countries with more resilient economies (first and third clusters) were identified, as well as countries with more vulnerable economies that were much more sensitive to the pandemic.