Modelling school capacity demand under rapid suburbanization: A case study of the Košice urban region following a major industrial investment

Abstract

Population redistribution and changes in age structure pose persistent challenges to the efficient and sustainable provision of public services. This study aims to support evidence-based and spatially targeted investment decisions in public services, with a specific focus on pre-primary and primary school capacity planning. The paper applies demographic modelling of population development, with particular attention to child age categories relevant to pre-primary and primary education, to assess how suburbanization processes and major industrial investments may reshape future demand for educational infrastructure. A cohort-component population forecast is combined with an investment-adjusted scenario that captures potential demographic responses associated with large-scale industrial development. Spatial differentiation is introduced through a zonation framework that integrates demographic trends, residential capacity, and empirical analogies from a comparable investment-driven regional transformation. The approach is demonstrated using the Košice urban region, a rapidly suburbanizing area where a major automotive investment is expected to further intensify population redistribution. The results reveal that investment-related demographic dynamics can substantially alter the spatial distribution of future school capacity demand, mitigating population decline in the urban core while concentrating growing needs in suburban zones. Beyond the specific case study, the proposed modelling framework offers a transferable methodology applicable to other regions facing suburbanization and investment-driven demographic change, providing a robust basis for strategic and timely planning of educational infrastructure.