Simulácie dopadov zmien plodnosti a migrácie na budúci demografický vývoj na Slovensku a v jeho okresoch

Simulations of changes in fertility and migration on future demographic developments in Slovakia and its regions

Abstract

Although the concept of so-called replacement migration has been well known for several decades, it is not often applied at the subnational level. This study is conducted at both the national and district levels in Slovakia. In addition to migration, theoretical fertility scenarios are also modelled. Mortality is used in only one scenario. The aim of the simulations is to contribute to the understanding and quantification of the future population size and age composition depending on different variants of fertility and migration. We seek fertility and migration scenarios that ensure the stable development of population size and age composition, thereby maintaining the current number and mean age of the population. We demonstrate that these scenarios, with a few exceptions, are theoretical, as a decrease in population size and an increase in the mean age of the population are irreversible. The strong influence of population momentum is evident. High population dynamics before 1989 caused large cohorts to move into senior age, and even extremely high migration and fertility rates cannot reverse the trend. Only a few districts in some scenarios represent an exception.