Changes in air temperature frequency in Europe as a component of climate change

Abstract

The main features of air temperature change in Europe, particularly in Ukraine, are described. In general, the rate of air temperature increase in the studied area exceeds the global average. The warming observed in Western Europe and in mountainous regions is less pronounced than in Eastern Europe. In particular, the mean annual air temperature in Ukraine has risen by more than 3 °C since the beginning of meteorological observations in the late nineteenth century. This warming corresponds to an approximate southward shift of the country’s climatic zone by about 500 km. A common feature of recent climate change is the acceleration of air temperature increase. A comparison of data for two equal periods (1961–1990 and 1995–2024) shows a significant increase in the frequency of high-temperature events. Consequently, the probability of hot days during 1995–2024 was substantially higher than during 1961–1990. A characteristic feature of mean daily temperatures across most of Europe, especially in its eastern part, is bimodality in the frequency distribution. In many cases, a peak with a high frequency of occurrence is observed at about 0–2 °C, which is close to the temperature of snow melting. Another common feature, mainly observed in Eastern Europe, is the presence of a right-hand peak at much higher temperatures. At the same time, in Western Europe and in mountainous regions, bimodality is much less pronounced.