From Signals to Outcomes: Evidence from Slovakia

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of selected policy decisions and energy supply disruptions on electricity prices from 2015 to 2025. Announcements elicited modest, transitory movements. Realized disruptions such as armed conflict or interruptions to gas pipeline flows generated sharp and persistent price increases. Results indicate that electricity prices are highly sensitive to gas and carbon markets. These findings provide new evidence on the drivers of electricity pricing in integrated European markets